Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, in which he secured 51% of the popular vote, marks a historic comeback in American politics. Unlike in 2016, when he won the electoral college but not the popular vote, this time his victory represents a stronger endorsement from the American electorate. Trump's resilience—having rebounded from a 2020 defeat, numerous legal challenges, and ongoing controversies—underscores his unique stamina and ability to mobilize support despite setbacks.
Transformative Shift in Domestic Policy and Governance: A second Trump administration is poised to enact sweeping reversals of policies introduced under the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations. Many federal programs as those supporting family services, childcare, workplace protections, and environmental safeguards are likely to be affected. The Trump administration’s impact on race relations, wokeness, social protections, and immigration will overhaul what the Biden administration did. Programs supporting Social Security, public health, and other safety nets could also face significant changes.
Rollback of Climate and Environmental Initiatives: Trump’s win means a reversal to Biden’s $400 billion climate investment. This shift deprioritizes federal support for renewable energy, climate resilience, and international climate initiatives, creating challenges for environmental organizations and climate-focused NGOs that rely on policy support and USG funding.
Strengthened Nationalism and Protectionist Economic Policies: The Trump administration will focus on an "America First" approach, focusing on protectionism and reducing dependence on international trade. This could involve higher tariffs, restrictions on imports, and increased support for domestic industries, which may impact global trade relations. For organisations operating in developing regions that depend on U.S. trade, this shift may create economic challenges.
Foreign Policy: Personal Relationships and Realpolitik: Trump’s approach to foreign policy remains deeply personal. His established rapport with leaders like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, and various Middle Eastern heads of state could shape unconventional U.S. foreign policy decisions, as Trump favours direct, leader-to-leader diplomacy over traditional alliances.
Middle East: Trump is likely to leverage personal relationships with leaders like Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Qatar) to influence Middle Eastern policy. His focus may shift toward maintaining stability over promoting reforms, and he may opt to manage rather than escalate tensions with Iran, potentially revisiting the Iran nuclear deal under more restrictive terms.
Russia and Ukraine: Trump’s foreign policy could involve attempts to rapidly end the Ukraine conflict, likely prioritizing U.S. interests over a NATO-centered resolution. His approach may create friction with European allies, especially if he appears willing to make concessions to Russia.
China Relations: Trump may work to ease economic tensions with China, focusing on reviving trade relations while still maintaining a firm stance on issues affecting U.S. economic interests. However, this approach may lead to selective engagement rather than full cooperation.
Global Impact on Governance and Social Policy: Trump’s alignment with conservative, nationalist leaders worldwide could inspire similar policies internationally, particularly in areas related to social policy, governance, and economic protectionism. This ideological shift could alter the global landscape for NGOs, especially those focused on human rights, gender equality, and environmental protection. Reduced funding and altered priorities may present new challenges for NGOs aiming to promote these causes.
In terms of his last term here is what we know in development, if the past is a predictor of the future:
Funding and Foreign Aid Priorities: Trump’s previous administration took steps to reduce foreign aid and placed a stronger emphasis on bilateral, transactional aid agreements. Development aid budgets might be cut or redirected toward initiatives more closely aligned with U.S. interests, such as counterterrorism, trade facilitation, and migration control, rather than poverty reduction or global health priorities. NGOs that rely on U.S. funding might see more restricted budgets or conditions attached to funding.
Policy Influence on Global Health and Social Programs: Previous Trump policies reintroduced and expanded the "Mexico City Policy" (Global Gag Rule), which restricted funding to NGOs that offered abortion services or counselling. If reinstated, this could significantly affect organizations focused on family planning, women’s health, and HIV/AIDS prevention, especially those operating in countries with limited healthcare infrastructure.
Climate Change and Environmental Programs: A Trump administration would likely deprioritize climate change initiatives and possibly withdraw the U.S. from global environmental agreements. This shift would directly affect NGOs and development organizations focused on climate resilience, conservation, and clean energy. Reduced funding and support for climate initiatives could increase challenges for NGOs working in vulnerable regions.
Increased Nationalism and Bilateral Agreements: Development priorities might be driven more by bilateral agreements rather than multilateral partnerships. This approach could reshape how NGOs operate, possibly pushing them to work more closely with individual governments rather than through U.S.-led multilateral coalitions. NGOs could face increased barriers in regions where U.S. relations are strained or where U.S. aid is strategically focused on trade or security concerns.
Trade and Economic Policies: Trump’s preference for protectionist trade policies could impact international economic development projects, especially those focused on fair trade, small business support, or supply chains in developing countries. If the U.S. shifts trade policies or tariffs, it may create challenges for NGOs supporting export-based economies in developing regions.
In summary, Trump’s victory heralds’ significant changes in American governance and foreign policy, which will likely reverberate globally. NGOs and development organizations may face a transformed operational landscape, necessitating adaptations in strategy, funding sources, and partnerships to navigate the new political climate.
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